Uncertainty and the Management of Outbreaks: Harnessing the Power of Multiple Models

This event is part of our Global Pervasive Computational Epidemiology Seminar Series. 

Speaker: Dr. Katriona Shea, Professor of Biology and Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences at PennState University

Abstract: During outbreaks of weeds, pests and infectious diseases, uncertainty hinders our ability to forecast dynamics, and to make critical decisions about management. In particular, disparate epidemiological projections from different modeling groups, arising from different scientific descriptions of the underlying biological and management processes, may hamper intervention planning and response by policy makers. Drawing on methods from expert elicitation and judgment, we can harness the expertise of multiple modeling groups in a decision theoretic framework. Case studies of several diseases illustrate how to gain a better idea of expected outcomes, and the risk of particularly problematic consequences. This approach allows policy makers to focus on what matters most as they make critical decisions.

Join the seminar here.