Evaluation of Broadband Subsidy Programs: Combining Spatial Regression Discontinuity Designs and Bayesian Wombling
Date: Thursday, August 12, 2021 | 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Authors: Joshua Randall Goldstein, Aritra Halder, John Pender, Aaron D. Schroeder, Devika Mahoney-Nair, Neil Kattampallil, Stephanie S. Shipp, and Sallie Keller
Sponsor: Government Statistics Section
Abstract: The USDA Rural Utility Services (RUS) administers grant and loan programs to improve infrastructure access and quality of life in rural areas. We are collaborating with the USDA Economic Research Service to develop a statistical framework to study the impacts of RUS broadband programs on residential property values. Our approach features a Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling of property prices at its core, which produces an estimate of the underlying spatial random field for eligible geographic regions. This is followed by algorithmic detection of significant regression discontinuities and gradients along program boundaries within the random field. The rationale is that if a particular program is effective in a certain region within a state, the increased availability of broadband should affect differences in property prices across the program boundaries. We apply this framework for evaluating the impacts of the Broadband Initiatives Program on property values in rural regions.