Agricultural commodity flow networks map the way food and other products move to markets. They are a critical component of modern food systems. They also, however, serve as conduits for pest, pathogen, and contaminant dispersal. Understanding these food flows and their role in invasive species spread is essential for food security. This knowledge also helps to preserve biodiversity, health, and economic stability. This project is developing: (i) novel network representations and analytics to understand agricultural commodity flows in the United States, and (ii) pest spread and impact models that account for natural and human-mediated pathways of spread.
We apply our models to the study of Tuta absoluta—a devastating pest of the tomato crop—with particular emphasis on its threat to North America.
The proposal employs statistical and machine-learning techniques for data integration and network construction. Agent-based epidemiological models will be adapted for the pest spread model. Various types of interventions can be implemented in the model to allow us to understand how best to mitigate and control pest damage. Additional models will be used for economic impact analysis.