Uncertainty and the Management of Outbreaks: Harnessing the Power of Multiple Models
Speaker: Dr. Katriona Shea, Professor of Biology and Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences at Penn State University
Abstract: During outbreaks of weeds, pests, and infectious diseases, uncertainty hinders our ability to forecast dynamics, and to make critical decisions about management. In particular, disparate epidemiological projections from different modeling groups, arising from different scientific descriptions of the underlying biological and management processes, may hamper intervention planning and response by policymakers. Drawing on methods from expert elicitation and judgment, we can harness the expertise of multiple modeling groups in a decision-theoretic framework. Case studies of several diseases illustrate how to gain a better idea of expected outcomes, and the risk of particularly problematic consequences. This approach allows policymakers to focus on what matters most as they make critical decisions.
Bio: Katriona Shea is a Professor of Ecology and an Alumni Professor in the Biological Sciences at Pennsylvania State University. She received her B.A. (Hons) in Physics from Oxford in 1990 and her Ph.D. in Theoretical Population Ecology from Silwood Park, Imperial College in 1994. Following postdoctoral positions in California and Australia, she joined the faculty at Penn State in 2001.
Professor Shea uses a wide range of empirical and quantitive methods to study the ecology and management of invasive and outbreaking species in perturbed environments, with a particular focus on the role of uncertainty. She is an elected Fellow of the Ecological Society of America (ESA) and of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). More information can be found here.