Thursday, April 8 2021
11:30am-12:30pm Eastern Time (ET)
Title: Ecological Complexity, Thresholds, and Risk Tradeoff in the Dynamics of Neglected Vector Borne Diseases
Abstract: Vector-borne infectious disease systems are inherently multiscale complex systems. In this talk, I will describe examples from my research on neglected vector-borne disease systems to show how ecological complexity and epidemiological risks are captured in a modeling framework. The model dynamics of such system are governed by a multitude of factors including host competence, host population size, vector feeding preference, spatial heterogeneity, biting heterogeneity and control efforts. The vector borne model often exhibits critical bifurcations, where it has a human infection and a vector population threshold, characterized by a bi-stable region, that describe potential for elimination of the disease beyond its threshold value. In this case, if control is applied through human treatment a new and lower human infection threshold is created, making elimination difficult to achieve, before eventually the human infection threshold no longer exists, making it impossible to control the disease by only reducing the human infection levels below a certain threshold.
Bio: Anuj Mubayi is an Associate Director at PRECISIONheor and Instructional Assistant Professor at the Department of Mathematics, Illinois State University. He currently also holds adjunct faculty position at College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University and at the Precision Research Center-Berkeley. He is an applied and computational mathematical scientist, whose research is driven by the quantitative modeling of problems of interest to the public health or social sciences communities.